Rebalance Planner • VITO

1 · Mandate recap

Moderate-aggressive, 10+ year horizon, dual-broker (SC + IBKR), run as Option A — Systematised Thematic against Policy.json: ten sleeves with bands, trades only on band breach or in the Feb/Aug windows. Hard guardrails: single position ≤ 12%, any currency < 60%, fixed income ≥ 18%, stop-review at −20%, liquidity ≥ 10%, US-situs watched against the US$60k estate-tax line. New core/metals/bond buys route to LSE UCITS (IGLN, IB01, VWRA…) — never new US situs. Amended 23 Aug 2026 (§7): SGD-bond band 5–7 → 7–10; the liquidity floor now counts the T-bill tier (SGOV · IB01 · UTWO) explicitly. A sleeve must be more than 0.5pp outside its band to trigger a trade; 0–0.5pp is watch-only. Currency is labelled as a quote-currency proxy and US situs as a tax-review estimate.

2 · Where we stand (marks 21 Aug, FX 21 Aug) close-out

Total S$274.8k (IBKR S$90.2k · SC S$184.6k) · drawdown from peak 0.9% (defensive trigger is 15%). Cash S$40.7k (14.8%) — still above its 2–10% band; S$11k of it is the JPY tranche-2 reserve for November. Bands out of range: bonds-global 8.6% (12–15), EM Asia 8.8% (10–13), core equity 25.4% (26–32) all below; defense 16.3% (13–16, only 0.33pp over — formal watch, no trade) and cash above. Bonds-SGD 9.4% is inside the amended 7–10 band. Aggregate FI 18.0% — on the floor. Metals 5.6%, healthcare 5.4%, Japan 4.6%, tankers 1.1% all in band. Corrected issuer/wrapper screen puts estimated US situs at ~US$88.0k, not US$102.6k: NXP, TAL, Methanex and Scorpio are foreign-incorporated issuers, and brokerage cash is excluded. It remains above the US$60k warning and needs tax-professional confirmation. Live sleeve/guardrail state: dashboard.

Interim refresh — 9 Sep 2026. IBKR confirmed live (17 positions + US$2,750 cash, unchanged since the close-out); FX and IBKR marks trued to 9 Sep — dashboard total S$281.3k, FI 17.5%. The private 9 Sep review (Investing/Reports/2026/09-Sep/) supersedes the §4 sizing: IB01 ~S$10.5k, CEMA ~S$3.8k, VWRA cash top-up no longer indicated (core already in band), and the BE pair is now a −20 sh → VWRA proposal (BE ~102× guide midpoint). Executed 9 Sep evening: the full 20-sh trim — 7 + 13 sh, all @ avg US$276.815 (orders 506443391 / 506443463, net US$5,535.16, realized P&L ~US$5,166); BE 6.9% → ~4.4% (35 sh). Pair completed the same evening: VWRA 28 units @ US$193.72 (LSE market order OAPOF9964518730 at SC, 22:40 SGT, settlement US$5,471.76 incl US$47.60 fees) — routed via SC because IBKR hard-blocks EU-UCITS buys (EU sanction rule, Reg. 833/2014 Art. 5f — applies to VWRA, IB01, CEMA alike; all UCITS orders go to SC from now on). The IBKR BE proceeds went to SGOV +55 units instead, which counts as fi_global: that sleeve is now 10.8%, so the IB01 leg shrinks to ~S$3.5–4.5k (from S$10.5k) to reach the 12% band floor. CEMA executed 22:48 SGT: 10 units @ US$308.53 (txn ref LSE202609092248336452220, settlement US$3,112.38 incl fees) — EM Asia 8.7% → ~10.1% ✓. IB01 executed 22:49 SGT: 25 units @ US$121.785 (SWX line IB01.CH, ref SWX202609092249046452233, settlement US$3,052.26 incl fees) — fi_global → ~12.1% ✓. The close-out trade list is complete: all ten sleeves in band, FI 21.4%, cash 9.3% inside 2–10. Next scheduled decision: JPY tranche 2 at the November quarterly check. Notion mirror fully synced 9 Sep (Investments + Transactions, incl. the previously missing MUFG/MBH rows).

3 · Event scan — what the last ten days changed

Rates. 21 Aug closes: 2y 4.24% · 10y 4.74% · 30y 5.27% (30y touched 5.34% on 18 Aug, highest since 2007). The 19 Aug Treasury buyback expansion ($2bn → $4bn long-dated, 9 Sep–4 Nov) gave back all of its 6–9 bp within two sessions. Fed at 3.50–3.75%, 29 Jul hold was 9–3 with three hike dissents; minutes say “many participants” see tightening if inflation does not decline. FOMC 15–16 Sep: ~39% hike / 61% hold priced, no cut. July CPI 3.4% (core 2.5%), June PCE 3.7%. Jackson Hole is 27–29 Aug, not last week — Chair Warsh’s first keynote is Fri 28 Aug. Read-across: no duration adds (UTEN note stands); the FI fill goes to the short end (IB01).
Japan. 10y JGB 2.88% (2.95% high, highest since 1996), 30y 4.06%. BoJ 17–18 Sep hike to 1.25% ~80% priced; MUFG path 1.50% by Jan-27. USD/JPY 158.9, SGD/JPY 125.2 (tranche-2 guard pauses only below ~118 or above ~165 USD/JPY — entry currently better than planned). Risk: PM Takaichi’s unfunded food-tax cut and a possible reshuffle of the fiscal-hawk FinMin — a JGB-stress repeat would hit 1306.T/MUFG again the way 18–19 Aug did (TOPIX −4%).
Singapore. MAS tightened again 27 Jul (second straight); USD/SGD 1.2695, SGD at an 11-year high — a standing headwind on the USD/JPY book in SGD terms. 10y SGS 2.36%, 6m T-bill 1.56%. No SRS/CPF change touching the 2027 SRS plan.
UK. 10y gilt 5.05%, 30y ~5.8% (1998 highs); BoE 3.75%, ~72% hold on 17 Sep. GBPG (1–10y) is carry, not a rally bet — size the top-up small.
Gold $4,607 / silver ~$69.7 (21 Aug, +5% w/w, highest since May) on the fiscal-credibility bid. Metals 5.6% — no adds; SLV back to −11%.
Iran / Hormuz. The US–Israel war on Iran (since 28 Feb) has Hormuz effectively shut for ~175 days (one commercial transit on 16 Aug vs ~73/day pre-war; ~309 vessels stranded; war-risk cover ~40× normal). The 60-day US–Iran MOU lapsed 17 Aug with no deal; Bessent’s 24 Aug presser is billed as “the toughest sanctions in history” incl. secondary sanctions aimed at China — escalation, not a deal. Brent $94 (+6% w/w). VLCC earnings >$520k/day, STNG Q3 bookings LR2 $59k / MR $47k, $0.45 dividend payable 31 Aug. Read-across: supports HAL/KMI/CF/MEOH; tanker rent persists; the Hormuz exit trigger is further away than at the window.
Oklo / nuclear. Oklo’s August news is all on the DOE track (Groves test reactor criticality 5 Aug; Aurora-INL under DOE PDSA, 2028 target; $3.0bn cash after $1.9bn of ATM raises; capex guide $400–500m) — no NRC design approval or COLA decision. Nuclear/URA/BE drawdowns on 18 and 20 Aug were the AI-capex + 30y-at-5.3% shock, not company news. Uranium spot ~$88/lb; URA +6% on 21 Aug. Japan: no new restart decisions. Rare earths: no new Chinese controls — watch the 10 Nov expiry of the Oct-2025 suspension (REMX).
Earnings. Beat-and-raise: BE (rev +166%, FY guide to $3.9–4.2bn), Rolls-Royce (FY OP guide £4.7–4.9bn), Sony, MUFG (NP +48%), Hitachi (backlog >¥10tn), DBS (record, S$0.81 paid 25 Aug), NXP (Q3 guide +15–21%), ATRC (first GAAP profit), KMI. In line: WM, FSLR, CF, HAL. Softer: Methanex (price roll-over, Titan idled). Baidu missed — see §5. Still to report: OKTA 26 Aug, ZS 3 Sep.
US fiscal/political. Government funded only to 11 Dec (House vote pending); Section 301/338 tariffs replacing the struck-down IEEPA set; midterms 3 Nov. NRA estate-tax filing/warning threshold for U.S.-situated assets remains US$60k — the situs review line stands.
Crypto watch (semi-annual item): scored 22 Aug — no signal, mandate unchanged.
New-theme / cycle verdict. No new sleeve. The portfolio already has ~13.6% in the power/data-centre chain (BE, KMI, Iberdrola, FSLR), a full defense/nuclear sleeve, 5.6% metals and 2.4% cyber. Shipping, semis, OFS, chemicals/fertilizers and metals fail the runbook's full trough + bearish-sentiment test. Crypto scores only 2/7 trough markers; the ≥3 rule is not met.

4 · Close-out trade list cash-first band repair

The first three lines are the minimum cash-first repair. They use no long duration and create no new US situs. Deployable now: SC SGD 33.4k minus the S$11k JPY reserve ≈ S$22k, plus existing USD cash. Prices/NAV are 21 Aug references — use limit orders and recalculate at order time.

	Move	~Size	Closes
☐	IB01 (iShares $ Treasury 0–1y UCITS, LSE USD acc, IE00BGSF1X88) — 63 units @ ~US$121.57 NAV. Short U.S. bills, duration ~0.30, Irish wrapper; counts toward liquidity. Do not add UTEN or other long duration before the September data/FOMC block.	≈ US$7,659 ≈ S$9.72k	FI-global 8.6% → 12.1% · total FI → 21.6%
☐	CEMA (iShares MSCI EM Asia UCITS, LSE USD acc, IE00B5L8K969) — 10 units @ ~US$302.36 NAV. Broad, liquid Irish UCITS; 549 holdings. Only fill the floor: the fund is already ~48% IT. Do not average Baidu, TAL or FLIN to repair the sleeve.	≈ US$3,024 ≈ S$3.84k	EM Asia 8.8% → 10.2%
☐	VWRA (Vanguard FTSE All-World UCITS, LSE USD acc, IE00BK5BQT80) — 7 units @ ~US$194.18. Broad Irish core; this is the cash-funded band repair and is independent of any BE decision.	≈ US$1,359 ≈ S$1.73k	core 25.4% → 26.0%
—	Defense 16.33%: no churn. It is only 0.33pp above the band and therefore watch-only under the newly formalised 0.5pp rule. If it moves above 16.5%, trim a US-situs vehicle first; at today's book a strict no-tolerance repair would be about 11 SHLD shares.	—	re-check 1 Sep

Landing state after the three buys: cash ≈ S$25.45k (9.26%), FI 21.6%, liquidity ≈ 16.4% and quote-currency USD ≈ 56.6% if existing USD cash is used first. After the guarded S$10–12k November JPY tranche, liquidity still remains above 10%.

Independent risk / wrapper swaps

These are not needed to close the bands. They are separately justified, weight-neutral migrations authorised for the August close-out; do them only if spreads and commissions are sensible.

Priority	Paired move	Reason
1	EMIF → CEMA, same SGD value, limit orders	EMIF AUM/volume and 0.60% fee; removes ~US$5.2k from the situs screen without changing EM weight.
2	BE −15 → VWRA +16 (approximately value-neutral)	Recommended valuation/concentration reset: Q2 thesis strengthened, but ~74× midpoint FY EPS guide and long-rate sensitivity justify reducing BE from 5.1% to ~3.7%. This is not “selling the winner” or funding the band repair.
3	SGOV → IB01	Near-equivalent short-Treasury exposure; Irish rather than US wrapper.
4	GLD → IGLN and SLV → ISLN	Preserve metals exposure in lower-fee non-US wrappers.
5	IXJ → XDWH, then AAXJ → CEMA	Remove near-duplicate US ETFs; lower fees and situs. No sleeve-weight change.

The corrected pre-trade situs screen is ~US$88.0k; the listed migrations including the BE pair reduce it to roughly US$66k. Reaching the US$60k warning still needs another non-US-wrapper replacement and a tax review; do not manufacture trades solely to hit an imprecise screening number.

5 · Decisions on record (stop-review & triggers)

Baidu −9% / sleeve 8.8% — Q2 (18 Aug) missed: revenue −4%, ads −19% (8th straight decline), non-GAAP EPS RMB 7.22 vs 9.84, Apollo Go rides cut to ~1m by domestic regulatory pauses; AI Cloud Infra +50% (GPU cloud +283%) is the one leg holding; MS to Underweight, Bernstein to Market Perform; 9888 closed HK$93.20 on 21 Aug (HK$100.8 before the print). Hold, no adds; re-underwrite at the Nov check with a written kill-criterion (ads decline > −20% two more quarters, or AI Cloud growth < 30%).
BE — Q2 beat-and-raise (rev $1.065bn +166%, FY26 $3.9–4.2bn), but the share price is roughly 74× the midpoint of adjusted FY EPS guidance. Hold if minimising turnover; preferred de-risk is the separately justified, value-neutral 15 BE → 16 VWRA pair in §4. The valuation leg of the now-numeric `be_valuation` trigger (>60×) has fired; it is still not required for band repair.
OKLO −47% — hold small; no adds until the NRC milestone. `oklo_nrc` trigger not fired — no movement either way (progress is DOE-licensed, not NRC). Stock −47%, 0.8% of total; $3bn cash removes the financing risk, PTs cut (Truist $51). Re-score Nov.
TAL −40% — hold; FY27 Q1 (30 Jul) revenue +32% vs est, EPS $0.75 vs $0.13; no new tutoring regulation found. The loss is valuation/sentiment, not a break. Re-score Nov.
STNG — pre-committed exit on a genuine Hormuz reopening deal. Trigger not fired — moving away (MOU lapsed 17 Aug, sanctions escalation 24 Aug, only live thread is an Iran–Oman corridor). Hold; 1.1% of total, in band; $0.45 dividend 31 Aug. Standing caveat: Kirill’s income is already shipping-correlated — no adds.
SLV −11.6% (was −26% at planning). Metals in band; consolidation into IGLN not pressing. Re-score Nov.
OKTA — Feb “sell if no improvement” flag closed (hold). Reports 26 Aug: guide rev $790–794m, cRPO +11%. ZS reports 3 Sep. No action either way unless a sleeve band moves.
Methanex — mild thesis weakening (Jul–Aug price guide $460–485/t vs $529 realised; Titan idled). Watch-list for Nov; 1.3% position, no action.
EMIF — first wrapper migration: very small AUM/volume and 0.60% fee make CEMA the better long-term sleeve vehicle. Use a limit order; do not cross the spread.
IBE1 corporate action — SC confirms nine unlisted rights, not yet nine ordinary shares. Keep 451 shares in master until the September statement confirms conversion/settlement; the possible missing value is ~S$268.
Rolls-Royce +190% — FY26 OP guide raised to £4.7–4.9bn. Mandate: never sell purely on the size of the gain.
SRS — start in 2027 from the annual bonus (decided 16 Aug; no 2027 rule change found).

6 · Priority 1 — JPY tranche 1 done

All three legs filled 18 Aug (Sony 100 @ ¥3,720 · 1306.T 2,000 @ ¥435.2 · MUFG 100 @ ¥3,650; ¥1,608,196 incl. fees), reconciled 22 Aug; Japan sleeve 4.6%. Marks 21 Aug: Sony +1.7%, 1306.T −2.6%, MUFG −3.9%. Full record incl. the fill-email lesson: Investing/Plans/2026-08-jpy-deployment.md.

7 · Policy amendments — 23 Aug 2026

`fi_sgd` band 5–7 → 7–10. The Feb mandate itself targets SGD bonds at 8–10% (Notion §10.2; §7’s “5–6%” was the narrower of two figures in the same document), and the A35 + MBH book has sat at 9–12% since March. Selling A35 below cost to satisfy the narrower figure would be churn. Total FI floor (18%) and the 20% target unchanged.
Liquidity floor counts the T-bill tier explicitly — `guardrails.liquidity_tier = SGOV, IB01, UTWO` (the mandate’s own wording: “SGOV, money market, short-term treasuries”; T+1 Treasury ETFs ≤ 2y). The build script reads it; until now only SGOV counted.
Fixed income is now an 18–22% aggregate guardrail. The two sleeve minima sum to 19%; 18% remains the early-warning floor rather than a target.
0.5pp anti-churn tolerance. Defense at 16.33% is now formally watch-only. The old “position 20% from intent” clause was removed because no intended position sizes exist in the data. Position trades need a named trigger, review decision or approved wrapper migration.
JPY tranche 2 is an approved staged-plan exception. November execution is permitted only under its size, regime, band, liquidity, FX and limit-order conditions; it is not automatic.
Completed stop reviews are stateful. OKLO and TAL now display Watch rather than permanent Breach until their 20 Nov re-review; Baidu's kill criteria are recorded too.
Measurement fixed. Currency is explicitly a quote-currency proxy; issuer/wrapper situs excludes cash; NXP/TAL/Methanex/Scorpio domicile tags are corrected; drawdown quarantines the incomplete 17–18 Aug snapshots and reads external flows from `CashFlows.csv`.
Event triggers: `boj_tranche2_guard` (BoJ 17–18 Sep; pause the November conversion if SGD/JPY < ~118 or USD/JPY > ~165) and `long_end_stress` (US 30y > 5.5% or 10y > 5.0% → BE sizing review, no duration adds) added. `hormuz_reopening`, `be_valuation`, `oklo_nrc`, `fomc_hike`, `prohibited` unchanged.
Not changed, by design: bands for every other sleeve; the 12% single-position cap; the −20% stop-review; the US$60k situs warning line. Crypto prohibition unchanged (watch scored 22 Aug — no signal).

8 · Tranche 2 — November health check

☐ Convert ~S$10–12k → JPY (averaging, not timing), limit orders. Two-sided guard: pause if USD/JPY breaks ~165 or SGD/JPY falls below ~118 (125.2 on 21 Aug — better than the 123.8 planning level).
☐ Hitachi (6501.T) 100 sh ≈ ¥570k — Q1 FY26 record (rev +20%, Lumada +31%, backlog > ¥10tn, FY guide raised); thesis strengthened.
☐ Top up 1306.T with the remainder (~¥700–900k) — keep the core dominant.
☐ Optional: MHI 100 sh only if defense has room (it is 16.3% today → default no).
☐ Re-underwrite Baidu; re-score TAL, SLV, MEOH; Sep FOMC SEP read-through; cycle watch.

9 · Calendar

24 Aug — Bessent press conference on Iran sanctions (2pm ET) · SG July CPI.
25 Aug — DBS S$0.81 dividend paid. 26 Aug — OKTA Q2 FY27 · Baidu EGM · US Q2 GDP second estimate and July PCE.
27–29 Aug — Jackson Hole; Warsh keynote Fri 28 Aug.
1–4 Sep — first scheduled monthly run (Sep 1 SC statement); confirms the Aug fees and fills. 3 Sep — ZS Q4 FY26. 4 Sep — US payrolls.
9 Sep — enlarged Treasury buybacks start. 10 Sep — ECB. 11 Sep — US Aug CPI.
15–16 Sep — FOMC (~40% hike priced) → `fomc_hike` / UTEN check. 17 Sep — BoE. 17–18 Sep — BoJ (1.25% ~80% priced) → `boj_tranche2_guard`.
3rd week Nov — quarterly health check: JPY tranche 2 (§8), Baidu/TAL/SLV/MEOH re-scores, currency look-through refinement.
3rd week Feb 2027 — next semi-annual; this page gets rebuilt then. Situs programme step 2 (IXJ→XDWH, AAXJ→CEMA swaps at IBKR).
2027, on bonus payout — open the SRS account and make the first contribution.

10 · Primary sources

Macro and policy: Fed 29 Jul decision · Fed minutes · ECB 23 Jul · BoJ 31 Jul · BoE July · MAS 27 Jul · IEA Oil Market Report · IMF July WEO · U.S. Treasury curve.

Portfolio themes and instruments: Fed Monetary Policy Report · IEA Energy & AI · IEA Critical Minerals · IB01 · CEMA · VWRA · Baidu Q2.

US-situs screen: IRS Form 706-NA instructions · IRS filing guidance. The dashboard estimate is a screening aid, not a legal opinion.

After executing: log fills in Trades.csv, update Positions.csv, run build_portfolio.py, tick the boxes here, log to docs/Task.md. Marks: IBKR 21 Aug close · SC US/LSE lines 21 Aug · TSE 21 Aug · SGX/HK/Madrid 21 Aug closes (MBH at issuer NAV) · SC cash live 22 Aug 16:37 SGT · FX 21 Aug.